By Emily Barry, REALTOR®, Team Leader, The Barry Team at eXp Realty
Niagara’s HPI benchmark price was $567,400 in September 2026, down 0.4% from August and down 4.6% from September 2025. Our preliminary Habistat search shows an average sale price of $657,106 and 516 sales. The average rose slightly from August, while the benchmark and median moved lower.
September 2026 at a glance
Sales figures come from our Habistat searches of Niagara MLS® data, pulled October 2. The benchmark comes from the separate Niagara Region [NAR] composite HPI chart. These are preliminary figures, rather than the official September board release. I’ll update this post when that report is available.
What the price numbers mean
The average sale price went up from August, but the average can move with the mix of homes that sell. That’s why I also look at the benchmark, which tracks a representative home. The median is the middle sale price, and it also dipped in September.
A 0.4% drop in a month doesn’t sound like a lot. But a few more months of that adds up by the end of the year. My gut tells me the pressure to keep prices down will continue through the fall. But you never know!
What I am seeing on the ground
Sellers are adjusting. Four months ago, roughly 70% of the new listings I was tracking were re-listed properties (homes that had been on the market, came off and came back on). Right now that’s down to about 55%. That’s my own count, not an official stat.
My read is that more sellers are accepting 2026 prices and getting the list price right from day one. We’re also seeing homes that sat for a year or more finally sell after the sellers adjusted. These are my observations, rather than a measure of the whole Niagara market.
Two dates to watch this month
October 16: CREA’s quarterly forecast. In July, the Canadian Real Estate Association forecast the national average price would rise 1.1% to $686,710 in 2026, with Ontario prices down slightly (less than 1%). Those are national and provincial numbers, not Niagara. I’m watching whether CREA downgrades its sales or price forecast for 2027 or holds steady.
October 28: Bank of Canada rate announcement. The overnight rate has been 2.25% since October 2025. Personally, I’m watching closely for a possible increase. If lenders raise their prime rates, variable-rate borrowing and lines of credit can become more expensive. If that happens, I think it could slow the fall market down a bit more.
If you are selling in Niagara
Price for today’s market, not last year’s. Buyers are comparing your home with everything else they can get for the same money. Getting the price right from day one gives you a stronger starting point, although it does not guarantee a sale.
If you’re already on the market and getting little interest, look at what sold nearby, what new competition showed up and what the feedback keeps saying. More marketing won’t fix a price that doesn’t make sense besides the alternatives.
If you are buying in Niagara
In September, about 7 out of every 100 homes sold for more than the asking price, compared with about 9 in August. Buyers may have more room to negotiate, especially on a home that has been sitting for a while. But that doesn’t mean every home is overpriced or every seller will accept less. Before we recommend an offer, we look at what similar homes nearby actually sold for, how long the property has been listed and any price reductions. The asking price is what the seller wants. Recent comparable sales help us decide what’s reasonable to pay.
If you’re on a variable rate or planning to use a line of credit, keep October 28 on your radar. Personally, I would focus on a home that suits your life at a payment you’re comfortable with. Nobody can promise you’ll buy at the bottom.
Niagara real estate market FAQ
What is the average home price in Niagara?
Our preliminary Habistat search shows an average sale price of $657,106 in September 2026. The separate HPI chart shows a benchmark of $567,400. They are different price measures.
Are Niagara home prices dropping?
The benchmark fell 0.4% from August and was down 4.6% from September 2025. The median also declined, while the average increased from August. A regional number does not tell us how every individual home changed in value.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Niagara?
I think there are good opportunities for buyers right now. Benchmark prices are lower, and some sellers are more willing to negotiate. That can mean buying a home that was out of reach a few years ago.
If you also have a home to sell, selling first can put you in a stronger position. You know how much money you have to work with, and you may be able to make an offer without a condition to sell your home. This year, I’ve seen sellers buy first, struggle to sell and eventually reduce their asking price under pressure. Your Barry Team agent can help you decide which order makes sense for your situation.
Are these the official September NAR statistics?
These sales figures come from The Barry Team’s full-month Habistat searches. The benchmark comes from a separate Niagara composite HPI chart. They are preliminary and will be reviewed when the official September board report is available.
Planning a move in Niagara?
If you want to talk through your plan, book a buyer’s meeting or a seller’s meeting with our Niagara real estate agents. Or you can reach out at 905-357-8067 or email admin@thebarryteam.ca.
About the author: Emily Barry has been a REALTOR® in Niagara since 2003. She leads The Barry Team at eXp Realty, serving buyers and sellers across Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Welland, Thorold, Pelham, Fort Erie, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Lincoln and surrounding communities.
Sources and scope: Full-month Habistat Niagara sales searches for September 2026, August 2026 and September 2025, using matching Sale, All Property Types and All Beds/Baths filters, captured October 2. HPI values come from the separate Niagara Region [NAR] composite chart. The sales and HPI series have different definitions and are attributed separately. Figures may be revised.
Primary sources: CREA quarterly forecast | Bank of Canada policy rate and announcement schedule | CREA Niagara board statistics
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