By Emily Barry, REALTOR®, Team Leader, The Barry Team at eXp Realty, updated October 25, 2026
The Niagara real estate market softened again in September. Niagara’s HPI benchmark price was $567,400 in September 2026, down 0.4% from August and down 4.6% from September 2025. According to the Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR), 502 residential sales were reported in September, 2.0% fewer than a year earlier, and the average sale price was down 4.7% from September 2025.
September 2026 at a glance
| Measure | September 2026 | vs September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| HPI benchmark | $567,400 | Down 4.6% |
| Average sale price | Not published by NAR | Down 4.7% |
| Sales (residential) | 502 | Down 2.0% |
| New listings (residential) | 1,470 | Down 15.9% |
| Average days on market | 46 | Unchanged |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 34.1% | Up from 29.3% |
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS® September 2026 release (October 6, 2026), residential only. Yearly changes compare September 2026 with September 2025.
Niagara isn’t one market. The regional benchmark is $567,400, but your town’s number is what actually prices your home. Here’s the September 2026 breakdown by municipality (MLS® HPI composite benchmarks, Niagara Association of REALTORS® stats package):
| Municipality | Benchmark | vs September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Niagara region | $567,400 | Down 4.6% |
| St. Catharines | $517,700 | Down 4.2% |
| Niagara Falls | $560,500 | Down 4.5% |
| Welland | $492,300 | Down 2.9% |
| Grimsby | $673,700 | Down 5.4% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | $852,500 | Down 4.6% |
| Port Colborne / Wainfleet | $466,000 | Down 6.2% |
| Fort Erie | $483,300 | Down 6.6% |
| Thorold | $567,400 | Down 6.3% |
| Pelham | $746,700 | Down 2.7% |
| Lincoln | $653,400 | Down 8.3% |
| West Lincoln | $647,800 | Down 4.9% |
Sales, new listings, days on market and the average price change come from the Niagara Association of REALTORS® September 2026 release (October 6, 2026), residential only. Benchmarks are MLS® HPI composite values from the NAR September 2026 stats package. Yearly changes by municipality are calculated from its September 2025 and September 2026 benchmarks.
Your town’s benchmark is a starting point, not a price for your home. If you want a real number based on recent sales near you, we’ll put one together for you.
What the price numbers mean
The average sale price was down 4.7% from a year ago, but the average can move with the mix of homes that sell. That’s why I also look at the benchmark, which tracks a representative home. It slipped 0.4% from August.
A 0.4% drop in a month doesn’t sound like a lot. But a few more months of that adds up by the end of the year. My gut tells me the pressure to keep prices down will continue through the fall. But you never know!
Niagara benchmark price, last 12 months
MLS® HPI composite benchmark, Niagara region. Down 4.6% from September 2025 to September 2026.
See the monthly numbers
| Month | Benchmark |
|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | $594,700 |
| Oct 2025 | $588,400 |
| Nov 2025 | $583,000 |
| Dec 2025 | $575,200 |
| Jan 2026 | $573,900 |
| Feb 2026 | $571,800 |
| Mar 2026 | $580,800 |
| Apr 2026 | $573,700 |
| May 2026 | $575,300 |
| Jun 2026 | $571,300 |
| Jul 2026 | $572,200 |
| Aug 2026 | $569,800 |
| Sep 2026 | $567,400 |
What I am seeing on the ground
Sellers are adjusting. Four months ago, roughly 70% of the new listings I was tracking were re-listed properties (homes that had been on the market, came off and came back on). Right now that’s down to about 55%. That’s my own count, not an official stat.
My read is that more sellers are accepting 2026 prices and getting the list price right from day one. We’re also seeing homes that sat for a year or more finally sell after the sellers adjusted. These are my observations, rather than a measure of the whole Niagara market.
The rate backdrop is shifting
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, the anchor for fixed mortgage rates, is holding near 3.6% as of early October, and the banks are moving: all of the Big 6 have raised at least some fixed rates since early September, with BMO’s advertised 5-year now at 5.14%. If you locked in during 2020-2021 at sub-1%, you’re renewing into a very different world. And the Bank of Canada story has changed. Scotiabank is calling for a hike at the October 28 meeting and KPMG now expects one in December, a shift from just weeks ago when the expectation was no move at all.
News and dates to watch this month
October 16: CREA cut its forecast again. It’s the third downgrade in a row this year. CREA now expects 444,530 home sales across Canada in 2026, down 5.2% from 2025, and pointed to higher fixed mortgage rates, uncertainty around variable rates and a more hawkish Bank of Canada. For Ontario, it expects prices to finish the year down 3%. Those are national and provincial numbers, but they line up with what we’re seeing in Niagara: softer prices, patient buyers and a market waiting to see where rates go.
October 19: September inflation came in cool. Canada’s CPI rose 3.1% in September, below what economists expected. The whole uptick is gasoline: pump prices jumped 27.8% on surging oil. Take gas out of the picture and inflation actually slowed to 2.2%, and the Bank’s own core measures are running soft too (1.8% and 1.9%). What this means for October 28: nothing in this report forces the Bank’s hand.
October 28: Bank of Canada rate announcement. The overnight rate has been 2.25% since October 2025. Personally, I’m watching closely for a possible increase. If lenders raise their prime rates, variable-rate borrowing and lines of credit can become more expensive. If that happens, I think it could slow the fall market down a bit more.
If you are selling in Niagara
Price for today’s market, not last year’s. Buyers are comparing your home with everything else they can get for the same money. Getting the price right from day one gives you a stronger starting point, although it does not guarantee a sale.
If you’re already on the market and getting little interest, look at what sold nearby, what new competition showed up and what the feedback keeps saying. More marketing won’t fix a price that doesn’t make sense next to the alternatives.
If you are buying in Niagara
Niagara had 6.1 months of inventory in September, according to CREA’s Niagara board figures, down from 7.3 a year ago but still above the long-run average of 4.7. Buyers may have more room to negotiate, especially on a home that has been sitting for a while. But that doesn’t mean every home is overpriced or every seller will accept less. Before we recommend an offer, we look at what similar homes nearby actually sold for, how long the property has been listed and any price reductions. The asking price is what the seller wants. Recent comparable sales help us decide what’s reasonable to pay.
If you’re on a variable rate or planning to use a line of credit, keep October 28 on your radar. Personally, I would focus on a home that suits your life at a payment you’re comfortable with. Nobody can promise you’ll buy at the bottom.
Niagara real estate market FAQ
NAR’s September 2026 release says the residential average sale price was down 4.7% from September 2025 (NAR doesn’t publish the dollar figure). The MLS® HPI benchmark was $567,400. The average moves with the mix of homes that sell, while the benchmark tracks a typical home, so the benchmark is the better guide to what a home like yours is worth.
Modestly. The benchmark fell 0.4% from August and was down 4.6% from September 2025, and the residential average sale price was down 4.7% year over year, according to the Niagara Association of REALTORS®. A regional number doesn’t tell us how every individual home changed in value.
It leans toward buyers. CREA’s Niagara figures show 6.1 months of inventory in September, above the long-run average of 4.7, and NAR reported 502 residential sales against 1,470 new listings. Buyers have more choice and more room to negotiate, especially on homes that have been sitting, but well-priced homes in good condition still sell.
I think there are good opportunities for buyers right now. Benchmark prices are lower, and some sellers are more willing to negotiate. That can mean buying a home that was out of reach a few years ago.
If you also have a home to sell, selling first can put you in a stronger position. You know how much money you have to work with, and you may be able to make an offer without a condition to sell your home. This year, I’ve seen sellers buy first, struggle to sell and eventually reduce their asking price under pressure. Your Barry Team agent can help you decide which order makes sense for your situation.
Yes. Sales, new listings, days on market, the average price change and benchmark prices come from the Niagara Association of REALTORS® official September 2026 release and stats package (published October 6, 2026), residential only. The one exception is months of inventory, which comes from CREA’s Niagara board figures and is labelled where it appears.
Port Colborne/Wainfleet, at $466,000, roughly $100K under the regional benchmark. Among the areas in our table, Lincoln saw the steepest year-over-year drop (down 8.3%), while Pelham held up best (down 2.7%).
Planning a move in Niagara?
If you want to talk through your plan, book a buyer’s meeting or a seller’s meeting with our Niagara real estate agents. Or you can reach out at 905-357-8067 or email emily@thebarryteam.ca.
About the author: Emily Barry has been a REALTOR® in Niagara since 2003. She leads The Barry Team at eXp Realty, serving buyers and sellers across Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Welland, Thorold, Pelham, Fort Erie, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Grimsby, Lincoln, West Lincoln, Port Colborne, Wainfleet and surrounding communities. Emily is #1 in Niagara Falls on Rate-My-Agent with a 4.99 rating, and The Barry Team ranked #5 among all eXp teams in Canada by sales volume in July 2026.
Sources and scope: Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR) September 2026 market release (October 6, 2026) for sales, new listings, days on market and the average price change (residential only: freehold and condo, excluding multifamily, land and farm). CREA’s Niagara board statistics for months of inventory only. The sales-to-new-listings ratio is calculated from NAR’s residential sales and new listings. MLS® HPI composite benchmarks from the NAR September 2026 stats package. Re-listing numbers are The Barry Team’s own count, not official statistics.
Primary sources: CREA quarterly forecast | Bank of Canada policy rate and announcement schedule | CREA Niagara board statistics | NAR September 2026 stats package (PDF)
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